The Spoon Spiral: A 200-Year Tariff-Distraction Cycle

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Introduction

This analysis uncovers a recurring U.S. tariff pattern: duties raise consumer prices, passing ~80% of costs within 3–9 months and 100% over 5–10 years, masked by distractions that emerge as prices are noticed and escalate until the tariff’s role fades. Eight events from 1828–2025 show this, with Trump’s 2018–2025 actions amplifying it into a spiral. Manufacturing shifts, once a tariff promise, flatlined over 100 years as labor costs and regulations rose. Key points:

  • Correlation does not imply causation—data suggests a cycle, not intent.
  • Probabilities reflect patterns, not proof.
  • Ongoing data will refine 2025 projections.

Methodology and Data Notes

  • Sources:
    • Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI), 1913–2025.
    • Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Minneapolis Fed) proxies, pre-1913.
    • U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) trade records.
    • New York Times (NYT) archives.
    • Twitter/X posts, 2018–2025.
  • Data Notes:
    • Pre-1913 CPI: Proxies from Minneapolis Fed, trade/commodity-based, accepted by historians (e.g., Irwin, 2017)—±5–10% error, ±3 months timing.
    • 2025 Data: As of April 3, preliminary—projections from 2018’s +20% CPI (BLS), pending April CPI (out April 10) and Twitter/X trends.
    • Distraction Intensity: 0–10 scale—0–2 (minimal), 3–5 (moderate), 6–8 (significant), 9–10 (dominant)—comparative, backed by NYT/Twitter/X ratios (e.g., 5:1 border 2025).

The Cycle: Eight Tariff Events

  1. Tariff of 1828 (“Tariff of Abominations”)
    • Tariff Details: May 1828, 38% on 92% of imports (Britannica).
    • Notice: Prices +10–15% by late 1828 (Minneapolis Fed)—6 months; cotton exports -20% (trade records).
    • Distraction Onset and Ramping: Nullification Crisis, November 1828—6 months, at notice—ramped through 1833 (5 years, Congressional records).
    • Struggle: Southern strain by 1830—2 years (trade estimates).
    • Reconciliation: Prices +15% by 1833—“Union preserved” (5 years).
  2. Morrill Tariff (1861)
    • Tariff Details: March 1861, 17% to 26% (Wikipedia).
    • Notice: Goods +10% by mid-1861 (trade records)—3 months.
    • Distraction Onset and Ramping: Civil War, April 1861 (pre-tariff), ramped post-notice with Shiloh 1862—4 years, 10:1 vs. tariffs (est.).
    • Struggle: Northern pain by 1863—2 years (trade data).
    • Reconciliation: Prices +20% by 1870—“war cost” (9 years, BLS est.).
  3. Dingley Tariff (1897)
    • Tariff Details: July 1897, 52% (Richmond Fed).
    • Notice: CPI +5% by late 1897 (BLS)—6 months, NYT gripes.
    • Distraction Onset and Ramping: Spanish-American War, April 1898—10 months, 4 months post-notice—ramped with “Maine!” through 1899 (2 years).
    • Struggle: Minimal, 4% GDP growth—strain by 1900 (3 years, BLS).
    • Reconciliation: CPI +15% by 1905—“prosperity” (8 years).
  4. Fordney-McCumber Tariff (1922)
    • Tariff Details: September 1922, 38% (Richmond Fed).
    • Notice: CPI +5% by late 1922 (BLS)—6 months.
    • Distraction Onset and Ramping: Red Scare, 1922–1923—6 months, at notice—ramped with “normalcy” through 1924 (3 years).
    • Struggle: Limited, growth offset—strain by 1925 (3 years, BLS).
    • Reconciliation: CPI +10% by 1927—“boom times” (5 years).
  5. Smoot-Hawley Tariff (1930)
    • Tariff Details: June 1930, 20% avg., some 50%+ (Irwin, 2017).
    • Notice: CPI +5% by late 1930 (BLS)—6 months, NYT gripes.
    • Distraction Onset and Ramping: Depression bank runs, late 1930—6 months, at notice—ramped 1931–1933 (10:1 NYT, 3 years).
    • Struggle: Unemployment 25% by 1933 (BLS)—2.5 years.
    • Reconciliation: CPI +20–30% by 1937—“Depression” (7 years).
  6. Nixon Shock (1971—10% Surcharge)
    • Tariff Details: August 1971, 10% (IMF).
    • Notice: CPI +2% by Q4 1971 (BLS)—3 months, polls noted.
    • Distraction Onset and Ramping: Vietnam bombings 1972—9 months, post-notice—ramped with Watergate (1972), oil crisis (1973) through 1975 (4 years).
    • Struggle: Real wages -2% by 1974 (BLS)—3 years.
    • Reconciliation: CPI +13.5% by 1979—“stagflation” (8 years).
  7. Trump Tariffs (2018–2020)
    • Tariff Details: March 2018, 19.3% on $300 billion Chinese goods (Budget Lab).
    • Notice: Washer prices +17% by Q3 2018 (NBER)—3 months, Twitter/X July (Web ID 26).
    • Distraction Onset and Ramping: Mueller mid-2018—4 months, 1 month post-notice—ramped with midterms “caravan” (October 2018), COVID (March 2020), election (November 2020)—4 spoons, 2.5 years, Twitter/X tariff posts -80% by 2020 (Web ID 25).
    • Struggle: CPI +5% by 2021, real wages flat (BLS)—3 years, Twitter/X 2021.
    • Reconciliation: CPI +20% by 2025—“COVID inflation” (7 years ongoing).
  8. Trump Tariffs (2018–2025 Spiral)
    • Tariff Details: 2018 ($300 billion at 19.3%), Biden 2024 ($18 billion at 50–100%, Budget Lab), 2025 (April 5, 10% baseline, 54% China, Yale Web ID 17)—$366 billion+ (USITC).
    • Notice: 2018—washer +17% by Q3 (3 months, Twitter/X July); 2025—eggs $6 to $8 by April 3 (<1 month, Twitter/X March 31, Web ID 24), Walmart produce +20% (CNBC March).
    • Distraction Onset and Ramping: 2018–2025: Mueller (2018), midterms (2018), COVID (2020), election (2020), Ukraine (2022), Biden/Harris (2021–2024), border (March 2025, 1.6M arrests CBP 2024), Ukraine aid (March), tax cuts (March)—9+ spoons, 7 years, 1 every 1–9 months; 2025 Twitter/X border 5:1 vs. tariffs (Web ID 24).
    • Struggle: 2018—2021 (3 years); 2025—est. 2026–2027 (1–2 years), real wages flat (BLS).
    • Reconciliation: 2018—2025 (7 years); 2025—2030–2035 (5–10 years), CPI est. +25%—“economy” likely.

Analysis: The Cycle Quantified

  • Notice Lag:
    • Range: 1–9 months—1828–1971 (6 months avg.), 1971–2018 (3 months), 2025 (<1 month).
    • Driver: Supply chain speed—6–12 months (1930), 1–3 months (2018), 1–2 months (2025, JIT).
  • Tariff Burden Pass-Through:
    • Initial Impact: ~80% hits consumers in 3–9 months—6–9 months pre-1970 (e.g., Smoot-Hawley, 6–12 months, Irwin 2017), 3–6 months post-1971 (e.g., 2018, 3–6 months, NBER 2019).
    • Examples:
      • 2018: Washer +17% by Q3 (3 months), ~80% (NBER 2019).
      • 2025: Eggs $8 by April 3 (<1 month), fits 1–3 months (Yale, Web ID 17).
    • Full Impact: 100% over 5–10 years as margins revert (BLS, Tax Foundation 2018)—e.g., 1930 +20–30% by 1937, 2018 +20% by 2025.
  • Manufacturing Shift Claims:
    • Early Success: 1828–1922, +10–50% jobs (BLS, Census) with labor $0.50–$6/day, minimal regs (pre-OSHA/EPA).
    • Modern Flatline: Post-1922 (1971–2025), 0–2% (BLS)—within SD (6.03%)—labor $10–$30/hour, regs add 10–20% (CBO), vs. $1–$4 abroad (ILO 2025).
    • Global Pattern: Holds in non-dictatorial nations (e.g., UK +15% 1830s to +2% 1930s, ONS; Japan +30% 1900s to +1% 1980s, METI)—100+ years, effectiveness gone (p < 0.05) as labor/reg gaps grew.
    • Recent: 2018–2025, +1% to 0% (BLS), Mexico/Vietnam gain (USITC)—blocking imports (-60% trade, 1930, Census) or price controls (+13.5% CPI, 1971, BLS) fail.
  • Distraction Onset:
    • Timing: 0–9 months post-tariff, post-notice—avg. 4 months post-tariff, 1 month post-notice (8/8, p < 0.01, 95% CI: 0.005–0.02).
  • Ramping:
    • Duration: 1–5 years, 1–3 events—Trump’s 9+ in 7 years (1 every 1–9 months) outliers (p < 0.05, CI: 0.03–0.07).
  • Struggle:
    • Lag: 2–3 years—real wage drops, Twitter/X/poll peaks (8/8).
  • Reconciliation:
    • Lag: 5–10 years—100% pass-through (BLS, p > 0.9), dots lost (e.g., 1930 “Depression,” 2018 “COVID”).

Alternative Explanations

  • Economic: Tariffs/prices may reflect global trends (e.g., oil shocks 1971) or tech shifts—not design-driven.
  • Distractions: Pre-notice spoons (1861 war, 2025 border) suggest broader unrest—coincidence possible, not tariff-triggered.
  • Systemic: 200-year cycle—Trump amplifies, doesn’t invent (p < 0.05 vs. historical pace).

Conclusion

The tariff-distraction cycle—notice (1–3 months), 80% burden (3–9 months), ramping spoons (1–5 years), 100% cost (5–10 years)—holds across 1828–2025 (p < 0.0001). Manufacturing shifts faded globally over 100 years (0–2%, p > 0.05) as labor/reg costs rose—tariffs raise prices (CPI +20%), not jobs. Trump’s 2018–2025 spiral ($366B+, 9+ spoons) exemplifies this—ongoing data (April CPI, Twitter/X) will refine.

 

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