General Conference April 2004 Update to 2025
In his April 2004 General Conference address, “Preparation for the Second Coming,” Elder Dallin H. Oaks of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints highlighted an alarming rise in natural disasters—earthquakes, floods, tidal waves, hurricanes, typhoons, and blizzards—asserting their frequency and intensity had accelerated in recent decades. Drawing from The World Almanac and Book of Facts, 2004, he noted that major earthquakes doubled in the 1980s and 1990s compared to the 1960s and 1970s, with a sharp uptick in the early 2000s, and suggested other disasters followed suit. He described this “accelerating pattern” as “ominous,” beyond mere reporting improvements, framing it as a prophetic sign. This article traces his claims from pre-2004 through March 6, 2025, using data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NOAA, EM-DAT, and other sources. It examines frequency, intensity, economic damage (adjusted to 2024 dollars), and human impact across all disaster types he mentioned, adding tornadoes for broader context. Two lenses contrast the analysis: a scientific view of natural variability and a human-experience view of sustained, real-world consequences.
Earthquakes
Before 2004, Elder Oaks’ timeline aligns with USGS data (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), showing magnitude 6.0+ earthquakes averaging 100–120 annually in the 1960s–1970s, rising to 130–150 in the 1980s–1990s. Magnitude 7.0+ events averaged 15–20 per year, with 10 mega-quakes (8.0+) from 1984–2003, such as the 1985 Mexico City quake (8.0). Damage, adjusted to 2024 dollars to reflect today’s economic value, totaled approximately $300–400 billion, with around 200,000 deaths, including 25,000 in the 1988 Armenia quake. From 2004 to 2024, frequency stabilized at 150–170 magnitude 6.0+ quakes annually, but mega-quakes (8.0+) rose to 16—a 60% increase—featuring events like the 2004 Sumatra quake (9.1) and 2011 Tohoku quake (9.0) (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/statistics/). Damage escalated to $500–600 billion, with Japan’s 2011 event costing about $360 billion, and deaths reached approximately 700,000, including 228,000 from 2004. Average magnitude held steady at 6.1–6.3.
The USGS view sees no long-term trend; the 60% mega-quake rise fits natural variability, mirrored by 13 8.0+ quakes from 1900–1920. Sparse pre-1900 records (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/science) limit deeper conclusions, suggesting this is noise, not a shift. Conversely, the human-experience view emphasizes a sustained jump to 150–170 quakes, a 60% mega-quake increase, doubled damage, and tripled deaths—a higher baseline with profound stakes, as 2004 and 2011 alone outstrip prior decades.
Floods
Pre-2004, EM-DAT (https://www.emdat.be/) records 100–150 significant floods yearly in the 1980s, increasing to 150–200 in the 1990s. Damage in 2024 dollars totaled about $500 billion, such as the 1998 China floods at $44 billion, with roughly 100,000 deaths. From 2004 to 2024, frequency rose to 200–300 annually, peaking above 350, as in the 2010 Pakistan floods (https://data.un.org/). Damage reached approximately $1 trillion, with 2017’s Hurricane Harvey costing $150 billion, and deaths climbed to about 150,000, including 1,700 in 2022 Pakistan. NOAA data (https://www.climate.gov/) confirms growing rainfall intensity.
Scientifically, enhanced reporting and population growth inflate figures, but climate change—1.1°C warming above pre-industrial levels by 2023 per the IPCC (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/)—drives real increases. The human-experience perspective sees a sustained doubling of events and damage, with a 50% rise in deaths, marking a relentless new norm where floods strike harder and more often, overwhelming societies.
Tidal Waves (Tsunamis)
Pre-2004, tied to earthquakes, 10 mega-events from 1984–2003 caused $10–20 billion in damage (2024 dollars) and about 5,000 deaths, such as the 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami. From 2004 to 2024, 16 mega-quakes fueled tsunamis, inflating damage to around $400 billion—$300 billion from 2011 Japan alone—and deaths to about 250,000, with 228,000 in 2004 (https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/tsu_db.shtml).
The USGS deems the 60% frequency rise variability; tsunamis are too rare for a 40-year trend, aligning with historical clusters. The human-experience lens counters that sustaining this level, with just two events (2004, 2011) multiplying damage 20-fold and deaths 50-fold, renders rarity secondary to catastrophic impact.
Hurricanes/Typhoons
Pre-2004, NOAA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml) logs 80–90 named storms yearly in the 1980s–1990s, with damage at about $700 billion in 2024 dollars, including 1992’s Andrew at $50 billion, and around 15,000 deaths. From 2004 to 2024, annual storms rose to 90–100, with intensified peaks like 2020’s 30-storm season. Damage doubled to approximately $1.5 trillion, with 2005’s Katrina at $200 billion, and deaths reached about 20,000, including 3,000 from Maria (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/).
Science notes stable frequency but links higher intensity to warmer oceans (https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/), a real shift beyond reporting. The human-experience view highlights sustained intensity and over 100% damage growth, straining coastal resilience despite better warnings.
Blizzards/Winter Storms
Pre-2004, U.S.-focused NOAA data (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/) shows 10–15 severe events yearly, with about $100 billion in damage (e.g., 1993 Storm, $10 billion) and roughly 1,500 deaths. From 2004 to 2024, frequency held, but outliers like 2021’s Texas freeze ($200 billion) pushed damage to around $200 billion and deaths to about 2,000.
Scientifically, no global trend emerges; regional jet stream shifts amplify extremes (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/). The human-experience view notes doubled costs and rising tolls, like 2021’s grid collapse, signaling a heavier burden.
Tornadoes
Pre-2004, NOAA (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data) averages 1,200 U.S. tornadoes yearly, with about $60 billion in damage (2024 dollars) and 1,200 deaths. From 2004 to 2024, numbers rose to 1,300–1,400 annually—1,515 in 2024—with damage at around $100 billion and deaths at about 1,500. EF3+ events remained steady at 35–45 yearly.
Science attributes the modest rise to better detection, with intensity unchanged per climate models. The human-experience lens sees a sustained 10–15% increase and 67% higher damage, taxing communities annually.
Aggregate Impact (1984–2003 vs. 2004–2024)
Total damage grew from approximately $1.6–2 trillion pre-2004 to $3.6–4 trillion post-2004 in 2024 dollars—a 100%+ increase reflecting today’s economic scale. Deaths rose from about 320,000 to 1.1 million—a 240% surge, driven by quakes and tsunamis but broad across types.
Progression and Perspectives
Elder Oaks’ 2004 claim of rising frequency—earthquakes doubling per his source—holds through the early 2000s, setting an “ominous” tone. By 2025, quake acceleration plateaued, but floods and hurricanes intensified. Damage and deaths surged, sustaining higher levels across all disasters. The USGS/scientific lens views most trends as variability or climate-driven (floods, storms), with quakes showing no long-term shift over 120 years—pre-1900 data gaps obscure deeper cycles. The human-experience lens stresses sustained elevation—60% more mega-quakes, doubled flood frequency, tripled costs—reshaping lives beyond statistical norms. Elder Oaks’ warning resonates in these persistent, tangible tolls.